Day one: Luck of the Devil | Hitler's circle | No surrender

No surrender

Soviet soldiers raise a red victory flag over the Reichstag in Berlin after the German capital's capture in May 1945
Photograph: Yevgeny Khaldei

By the winter of 1941, it was obvious that Hitler's gamble on a quick victory over Russia had not paid off. By the following winter – the winter of Stalingrad – the consequences were already seen to be catastrophic. There was no longer any possibility of repeating the incisive, lightning campaigns that had brought the astonishing triumphs between 1939 and 1941. Instead, a bitter and attritional defensive war, which Hitler was both temperamentally and in terms of military skill singularly ill-equipped to direct, had to be fought – and with increasingly stretched manpower and resources.

Meanwhile, relentless bombing was reducing Germany's cities to ashes. And once the western Allies had established a firm hold on continental soil in the summer of 1944, the writing was well and truly on the wall – at least for all who applied conventional military logic to the increasingly uneven contest.

At one point or another, almost all the Nazi leaders below Hitler – Goebbels, Gφring, Ribbentrop, and Himmler among them – entertained notions of exploring avenues for a separate peace with either the Russians or with the western Allies. Hitler dismissed all such ideas out of hand. He would only negotiate from a position of strength, following a military success, he repeatedly stated. The chances of such an option being open to him were, however, as good as non-existent. So, instead, he spoke tirelessly and incessantly of will overcoming adversity; of refusal to capitulate, of holding out until 'five minutes past midnight'. Meanwhile, Germany burned.

By 17 January 1945, the Soviet armies had steamrollered over the troops in their path. The way to the German frontier now lay open before them. Overhead, Soviet planes controlled the skies, strafing and bombing at will. Some German divisions were surrounded; others retreated westward as fast as they could go. Warsaw was evacuated by the remaining German forces on 17 January, driving Hitler into a paroxysm of rage.

While this disaster of colossal proportions was unfolding on the eastern front, the allies in the west were swiftly reasserting themselves after staving off the Ardennes offensive. By early February, some two million American, British, Canadian and French soldiers were ready for the assault on Germany.

As German defences were collapsing on both eastern and western fronts and enemy forces prepared to strike at the very heart of the Reich, German cities as well as military instalments and fuel plants were being subjected to the most ferocious bombing of the entire war. The aim was to intensify the mounting chaos in the big urban centres in the east of the Reich, as thousands of refugees fled westwards from the path of the Red Army. The result was to magnify massively the terror from the skies as the bombs rained down on near-defenceless citizens.

Berlin was hit on 3 February by the most damaging raid it had suffered so far during the war, killing three thousand. Ten days later, on the night of 13-14 February, the beautiful city of Dresden, the glittering cultural capital of Saxony, renowned for its fine china but scarcely a major industrial centre, and now teeming with refugees, was turned into a towering inferno as thousands of incendiaries and explosive bombs were dropped by waves of RAF Lancaster bombers. At least 35,000 citizens lost their lives in the most ruthless display experienced of Allied air superiority and strength. In the last four and a half months of the war, 471,000 tons of bombs were dropped on Germany, double the amount during the entire year of 1943. In March alone, almost three times as many bombs were dispatched as during the whole of the year 1942.

By that time, Germany – militarily and economically – was on its knees. But as long as Hitler lived, there could be no prospect of surrender.